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Nick Myerhoff
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09 February 2010 06:13 |
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We all know in 2008-09 financial turmoil had a devastating effect on sales of apartments, however that sector maintained access to acquisition financing thanks to the presence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. According to National Multi Housing Council, uncertainty regarding near-term future—for rent rolls, absorption, and cap rates— led to a wide gap between bid and ask prices. As a result, transaction volume fell by more than 60 percent last year. Only $38 billion in apartment properties changed hands. Combine this with a U.S. apartment vacancy rate of 7.8% and us owners are hurtin.
It seems to me a recovery is not yet eminent in the apartment building market, yet many veteran apartment industry professionals agree that profits are made in before the upswing begins. The combination of cyclical improvement plus positive demographic trends over the longer term could produce a robust apartment recovery, that is if we can get even a modest recovery in jobs....that said:
Total non-farm payroll employment declined an average of 188,000 per month from August through October compared with monthly job losses averaging 357,000 during the prior three months. Gross domestic product rose 3.5% on an annualized basis in the third quarter. We need some kind of spark to get us going again.
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