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Through October 2011, we now have had three consecutive months of positive job growth on both sides of the Bay, after 44 straight months of negative job growth in the East Bay. Nationally, it is the first time that Bay Area regions are in the top five for job growth. San Jose has been #1 in the country for quite a while but now San Francisco has sprinted to #5. These are very significant developments for the Greater Oakland apartment market.
Bay Area Job Growth
January 1998 through October 2011
(Click chart to see larger image)
Archives: Bay Area Job Growth Charts
Change in Bay Area Rents vs. Employment
(Click chart to see larger image)
Rents should continue to go up and the sale market should continue to recover. Investors should take note: First Silicon Valley, then San Francisco, now look for the Oakland and East Bay apartment market to catch fire. Buyers should seriously consider buying in the Greater Oakland area as we roll into 2012.
National Job Growth Comparison
May 2009 through October 2011
(Click chart to see larger image)
Archives: National Job Growth Charts
We have found that by studying the trends in employment we can predict movement in the rental market.
The more closely we study job growth on both sides of the San Francisco Bay, the more a correlation emerges. The Change in Bay Area Rents vs. Employment graph shows that in 2002 the rental market in San Francisco bottomed out and began to reverse its trend after the .com bust. We can see that as the job market began to recover on both sides of the Bay rents followed.
Link Corkery has been tracking Bay Area job growth for over two decades. His findings have been the subject of many of his Rental Housing Association of Northern Alameda County (RHANAC) articles and analysis.
Link predicted that rents would begin going up in 2005, and in November 2008 he accurately predicted that rents would peak that year. In November 2009 he stated that the East Bay rental market was currently going through the worst of the downturn and anticipated it would soon start a recovery.
Link’s simple formula is “Rent growth follows job growth.”
We will post updated job growth graphs here and you are invited to visit and follow the progress of our rental market as it follows the jobs market. |
